Tourism destinations that prepare for a potential crisis can recover up to 1.5 times faster after such an event than those that wait and see, according to a new report from TOURISE and Oxford Economics.
The report, Resilience in a World that Doesn’t Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption, explored 85 major crises over the past two decades, and determined that tourism destinations are increasingly operating in an environment defined by ‘continuous shocks’.
‘A constant feature’
“In a world that does not reset between crises, disruption is a constant feature of the global tourism landscape,” commented HE Ahmed Al-Khateeb, minister of tourism of Saudi Arabia and chairman of TOURISE. “The real test for destinations measures how they prepare for volatility, protect traveler confidence, and maintain continuity ahead of such events.”
The report modelled three different scenarios for the current Middle East crisis, and suggested that ‘confidence, connectivity and affordability’ are the main factors determining how quickly tourism demand recovers.
If the ceasefire holds, it noted, global travel is projected to grow by about 6% in 2026, while if hostilities resume, global travel is expected to see a slight decline (1%). Sustained disruption, meanwhile, could result in a decline of around 3%, with weakness continuing into 2027.
‘Across every scenario, the report concludes that recovery is determined less by the crisis itself than by how quickly confidence, connectivity, and affordability can be restored,’ it noted.
The report also explored the impact of misinformation on tourism demand, noting that in 2025, rumours about a potential megaquake led to booking declines of up to 50% from some East Asian markets, despite no scientific basis behind the claim.
‘Confidence now travels faster than people,’ as the report put it.
‘Multi-country disruption’
While tourism tends to recover quicker these days – in about 10 to 12 months, rather than 24 months, on average, in the early 2000s – increasingly complex, multi-country disruptions are beginning to slow this trend, the authors state.
“Global tourism has proven remarkably resilient, reaching a record 1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025 despite a decade defined by natural and man-made disasters,” added Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics.
“The lesson learned is that resilience can be built before disruption occurs, in the actions destinations take to prepare. In a world that no longer resets between crises, preparedness is becoming a core measure of competitiveness.” Read more here.
