With COP28 kicking off in Dubai in the next few days, let’s take a closer look at some of the key themes that are likely to be discussed at the United Nations-hosted event.
Among other aspects, COP28 will deliver the first completed global stocktake of the world’s progress toward meeting climate goals, which will indicate which countries are falling short, which are on the right track, and where investment needs to be made.
“Given the competing geopolitical, economic, and financial pressures – and increasingly domestic-oriented policy directions – a key success at COP28 will be all countries taking part and remaining around the negotiating table,” commented Saugata Saha, president, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “A good result beyond participation would be the build-up of trust, cooperation on sharing technologies, opening channels for needed capital flows.”
Read More: COP28 president-delegate calls for ‘new era’ in climate finance
Let’s have a look at the core themes that S&P Global Commodity Insights expects to be on the table at COP 28:
1. Emissions Mitigation Targets
The current emissions reduction targets set by countries under the Paris Agreement fall short of the goal to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. S&P Global Commodity Insights’ analysis indicates that current ambitions would lead to emissions levels nearly double what is required for the 1.5-degree trajectory. The response of countries to this gap in ambition will be crucial.
2. Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Language
The European Union plans to propose a phase-out of unabated fossil fuel use at COP28. The specific language used in such a pledge, including terms like “phase down” versus “phase out” and “unabated” versus “all,” is expected to be a key point of negotiation.
3. Financing from Developed Nations
Negotiations around financing from developed nations to support climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing nations will play a pivotal role. Disagreements between developed and developing nations on post-2025 finance goals may impact the ability of developing nations to scale up their climate efforts, says S&P Global Commodity Insights.
4. Industry-Led Solutions and Low-Carbon Innovation
COP28 is likely to focus on industry-led solutions and low-carbon innovation, with an emphasis on tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and addressing methane emissions by 2030. Discussions will also involve technology related to carbon management, carbon capture, and hydrogen solutions.
5. Differences on Loss & Damage and Adaptation
Despite an agreement at COP27 on developing a funding mechanism for loss and damage, differences between developed and developing nations regarding the fund’s location, legal status, contributors, and allocation of resources have slowed progress. Resolving these differences is crucial for the operationalisation of the fund.
6. Progress on Paris Agreement Article 6
COP26 finalised the Paris Agreement Article 6 rulebook for international funding and accounting of carbon emissions reductions. COP28 will focus on further progress and adoption of recommendations from the Article 6.4 Supervisory Board, addressing technical details to achieve and surpass nationally determined contributions (NDC) targets.
7. Reform of Multilateral Development Banks
Structural reform of multilateral development banks and their role in financing the energy transition in developing nations will be discussed. Questions remain about the ability of these banks to change mandates to attract additional investment and whether reform can encourage private sector involvement.
8. COP as a Proxy for Other Issues
COP meetings have become a platform for nations to establish positions and negotiate on other geopolitical issues using climate as a proxy. While climate action has served as common ground for some nations, using these negotiations for broader geopolitical discussions may also slow progress on climate-related matters.
More information on this can be found in the report Unraveling Uncertainty: 2023 Scenarios and Net-Zero Cases – the energy transition is in flux, which can be found here. Pic source here.
