A ‘decisive transformation’ of the food sector could contribute to limiting global warming, a new study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has found.
According to the study, which was published in the Nature Food journal, changes to the food sector could help to limit the global temperature increase to 1.85°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, while also making food ‘healthier and cheaper’, and agriculture more aligned with biodiversity conservation.
The study is based on three possible pathways – the standard ‘SSP2’ scenario commonly used to model the continuation of current trends; a scenario of rapid transformation in the food system; and an expanded scenario with greater sustainability in other economic sectors as well.
Using PIK’s MAgPIE agri-food system model, the researchers assessed the impact of all three scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions, health risks, environmental pressures, income distribution and economic output.
‘Great importance’
“Our study shows the great importance of the food system,” commented Benjamin Bodirsky, PIK researcher and lead author of the study. “If we resolutely transform this sector towards sustainability, we will not only significantly slow down global heating, but also move towards many other desirable goals. Life expectancy will increase, nitrogen pollution will decrease, and global poverty will also decline slightly. What’s more, if we also make changes in other sectors, we can even limit climate change to well below 2°C.”
According to the researchers, a significant change to global food systems would also help to reduce nitrogen pollution, reduce global poverty levels and increase average life expectancy. When combined with broader sustainability measures beyond food, the probability of limiting global warming to 2°C rises to 91%, with a 38% chance of meeting the 1.5°C threshold, the researchers noted.
Improved biodiversity
“The food system transformation is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity,” added Alexander Popp, head of the PIK Land Use Transition Lab and co-author of the study.
“By combining measures – from protecting biodiversity hotspots, to plant-based diets, to more variation in crop rotations and better structured landscapes – the pressure on biodiversity can be significantly reduced.” Read more here.
