Food categories that are most affected by climate change – including butter, milk, beef and veal, chocolate, and coffee – are seeing price increases four times that of other items in the typical food basket, new analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found.
According to the ECIU study, Foods Hit by Extreme Weather Rising in Price Four Times Faster Than Others, which analysed the price of items in the typical UK food basket, these categories have seen prices rise by an average of 15.6% between August 2024 and August 2025.
In comparison, other food and non-alcoholic drink items saw an average price rise of 2.8%, the data showed.
Inflation basket
Together, these product groups account for 11% of the average food and drink basket used by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) to calculate inflation. Combined, they contributed 0.21 percentage points of the UK’s 3.8% Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in August, while the remainder of food and drink items – the other 89% – contributed 0.36 percentage points.
‘This means that, on a weighted basis, these foods are driving inflation at more than four times the rate of other items,’ the ECIU noted.
These give categories are also responsible for 1.9 percentage points of the 5.1% annual food inflation rate across the average consumer basket, compared to 3.2 points for the remainder of the average basket.
‘Upward pressure’
‘This suggests upward pressures on the prices of these products, including extreme weather made worse by climate change, are having a bigger impact on current food price inflation than domestic policy changes, a finding counter to a lot of recent reporting,’ the ECIU added.
While extreme weather, intensified by climate change, is not the only factor driving an increase in these commodity prices – with a rise in energy prices and supply chain challenges also having an impact – weather-related disruptions such as flooding, heatwaves and periods of drought have significantly affected production in many commodity prices.
As the ECIU noted, ‘Extreme weather made more likely by climate change is having a distinct impact on prices for these products.’ Read more here and here.
