Global food and agriculture systems are significantly falling short in terms of scaling up to feed 10 billion people worldwide by 2050, a new study by the Systems Change Lab has found.
The study assessed 32 key indicators in the food and agriculture sector across climate, biodiversity, and equity benchmarks and found that progress is falling short on nearly every front.
Indicator performance
Just one indicator – dairy productivity – is currently on track, while another – productivity for meat from cattle, sheep, goat and buffalo — is off track, but improving at a ‘promising, though insufficient pace’, the study found.
Ten indicators, including rice cultivation emissions intensity, pastureland area and the share of the population unable to afford a healthy diet, are ‘well off track and well below the required pace’, while three, including water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture, are ‘moving in the right direction but lack quantitative targets’.
A number of indicators are moving in the wrong direction, the study added, including food loss, pesticide use intensity and hunger levels, which will require ‘a complete U-turn’, according to the study.
A further eight indicators lack sufficient data to evaluate progress, it noted. The research also includes more than 60 additional indicators that identify both enabling conditions that may help achieve short- and long-term targets, as well as critical barriers to transformational change.
‘Deeply alarming’
‘These trends are deeply alarming,’ the Systems Change Lab said. ‘Food systems are responsible for one-third of global emissions, and even if fossil fuel emissions stopped tomorrow, food alone could push us past 1.5°C unless we drastically change how we produce and consume it.
‘Agriculture is also the top driver of deforestation and biodiversity loss. To stay within planetary boundaries, the world must boost productivity without expanding farmland, cut food loss in half by 2030 and shift to healthier, more sustainable diets.’
Founding partners of the Systems Change Lab include the World Resources Institute, The Bezos Earth Fund, The UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, Climate Action Tracker, Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, ClimateWorks Foundation, Global Environment Facility, Just Climate, University of Tokyo’s Center for Global Commons, and the Global Commons Alliance. Read more here.
