A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has explored a number of potential pathways towards achieving the goals of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as the Paris Agreement.
According to PIK, each strategy has the potential to ‘transform’ consumption and proaction across various sectors, resulting in both benefits and trade-offs that can enhance general well-being and accelerate sustainability targets.
“Sustainable development pathways are strategies that prevent dangerous climate change while at the same time moving towards a world that allows people to prosper on a healthy planet,” commented Bjoern Soergel, scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and lead author of the study.
“Our analysis shows that all three sustainable development pathways are far more effective than our current ‘business as usual’. They drive substantial progress towards the SDGs, for example reducing the number of people in extreme poverty by two thirds until 2030 and to virtually zero in 2050.”
The three pathways are as follows:
1 – Economy-driven Innovation towards Sustainable Development (SDP-EI)
This pathway is based on liberal, functional, and global worldviews that emphasise innovation, efficiency, and equal rights. The focus is on competitive markets as the primary driver for innovation and wealth creation, with governments acting as regulators to ensure alignment with societal goals. Economic growth is expected to continue, with medium to strong convergence across regions, helping to reduce inequality.
Key features of this pathway include high energy demand but very high efficiency, medium to high material demand with high material efficiency, and modest shifts toward plant-based alternatives in the food sector. Land efficiency is optimised to allow for more sustainable production.
2 – Resilient Communities Achieving Sustainable Development (SDP-RC)
This scenario emphasises solidarity, well-being, and regional diversity. It promotes the transition away from the capitalist economy model, focusing on equitable resource sharing and community development.
Societies in this pathway prioritise behavioural changes and a post-growth economy, particularly in the Global North, with continued economic growth in the Global South. Energy demand would be low due to lifestyle changes, and material consumption would be reduced through a focus on efficiency. A significant transformation in diets would lead to a reduction in food waste and a shift towards healthier, more sustainable nutrition.
3 – Managing the Global Commons to Ensure Sustainable Development (SDP-MC)
This pathway focuses on global citizenship and strong government-driven action to manage shared resources and public goods. States and international institutions play a central role in orchestrating the transition, using a combination of market mechanisms, industrial policies, and investments in public goods. Economic growth in the Global North would be moderate, while the Global South sees high growth.
The pathway emphasises rapid reductions in inequality, with moderate energy demand and high efficiency, alongside a gradual shift towards healthier, sustainable diets and reduced food waste. A combination of demand-side changes and production efficiency would reduce the environmental footprint of the agricultural system.
How to get there
“All scenarios we looked into share the same set of goals, but the question is how to get there,” commented Isabelle Weindl, PIK scientist and co-author of the study, who points out that all the pathways examined in the study stand out in their own way. “For example, the sustainable lifestyle pathway includes a rapid shift towards a flexitarian, but largely plant-based nutrition, which is known to also have substantial benefits for human health.”
Elsewhere, Elmar Kriegler, head of the Transformation Pathways research department at PIK and co-author of the study, noted that all the pathways have the potential to deliver, in an environment in which doing nothing is not an option.
“If we stick to our current trajectory, none of the SDGs will be achieved,” Kriegler said. “By 2030, 660 million people could still be living in extreme poverty, and environmental crises like biodiversity loss and global warming will only get worse. So it is clear we must act now. We can still choose which sustainable path to pursue, but ignoring them is no longer an option.” Read more here and here.
