TotalEnergies has outlined three potential long-term scenarios for the global energy system, leading up to 2050, in the seventh edition of its Energy Outlook report.
In the report, TotalEnergies notes that some 4.6 billion people still lack sufficient access to energy to support basic human development, while the energy sector continues to be a major source of emissions, particularly from electricity generation, transportation, and heat production.
Global energy demand has continued to rise over the past ten years – since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 – and while emissions have also grown over the same period, their rate of increase has slowed, reflecting lower carbon intensity across the global energy mix.
‘The stakes are clear,’ TotalEnergies noted. ‘We must collectively reduce emissions from electricity generation, the leading global source of energy-related emissions with 14 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, and reduce the carbon intensity of transportation and heat generation for industrial and residential use.’
The three energy scenarios for 2050 are as follows.
1. The Trends scenario
The Trends scenario assumes that current public policies, particularly in China and Europe, and technological developments continue without major acceleration. In this scenario, coal declines gradually, oil demand peaks around 2040, and gas use stabilises by the mid part of the century. This pathway would result in a global temperature rise of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100.
The scenario takes into account the ‘recent acceleration’ in low-carbon technologies, such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles and heat pumps. ‘However, infrastructure constraints, particularly electricity grids, geopolitical tensions and cost barriers to these technologies limit their large-scale deployment,’ TotalEnergies noted.
2. The Momentum scenario
The Momentum scenario is a ‘more proactive, forward-looking approach’, which assumes stronger policy action in developed economies, including carbon neutrality in OECD countries by 2050 and in China by 2060.
This scenario anticipates faster electrification, major reductions in coal use, and wider adoption of low-carbon fuels. However, fossil fuels would ‘still cover half of the growth in energy demand in India and the rest of the world due to insufficient low-carbon investments.’ Under this path, temperature rise is estimated between 2.2°C and 2.4°C.
3. The Rupture scenario
The Rupture scenario represents a coordinated global effort leading up to the mid part of the century, in accordance with the Paris Agreement pledge to limit warming to below 2°C. This scenario assumes rapid coal phase-out, and large-scale electrification, and would lead to a projected temperature increase of 1.7°C to 1.9°C.
‘The realisation of this scenario seems out of reach at present given the current state of geopolitical tensions, as it would require considerably enhanced multilateral cooperation in favour of global decarbonisation,’ TotalEnergies noted.
Commenting on the three scenarios, Aurélien Hamelle, president for strategy and sustainability at TotalEnergies, said, “Since the Paris Agreement, the global energy system has progressed by enabling the continued development of emerging economies while reducing the carbon intensity of the energy produced. Affordable low-carbon technologies are experiencing significant growth, for example solar panels or, in some parts of the world, electric vehicles.
“However, energy security and affordability issues act as a backstop for the often more local and less expensive carbon-based energies. […] To accelerate the transition, public policies must give maximum priority to solutions that offer the lowest cost for reducing CO2 emissions, while promoting the opportunities for cooperation created by the Paris Agreement’s international carbon credit trading system.” Read more here.
