Analysis of South Africa’s climate plans indicates ‘clear opportunities’ for a just transition from a coal-based to a green economy, a new study by SouthSouthNorth in collaboration with Net Zero Tracker has found.
The study explored the climate strategies of 32 government entities and 18 major corporations in South Africa, noting the disparities between affluent and low-income regions, as well as the role of different economic sectors in achieving net zero emissions.
The country recently passed a Climate Change Act aimed at enabling the ‘development of an effective climate change response and a long-term, just transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society for South Africa‘.
However, South South North and Net Zero Tracker have highlighted that there are further opportunities to integrate communities, workers, and marginalised groups as key drivers of the shift to a green economy.
Targeted investments
The study notes that coal-dependent provinces such as Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the Free State will require targeted investments and support to reduce reliance on high-carbon industries.
At the same time, wealthier cities like Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban, and Pretoria are advancing more comprehensive net zero plans, benefiting from diversified economies and lower dependence on fossil fuels.
‘Strong leadership’
“Our analysis highlights strong leadership from urban centres like Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg, where ambitious net zero targets and just transition measures set a positive example,” commented Samson Mbewe, project lead, SouthSouthNorth. “Provinces also play a key role in shaping city-level targets, creating a unique opportunity for them to drive greater climate ambition across the country.
“As progress in climate action and just transition measures are more advanced in wealthier regions, targeted support for less affluent areas can help create a more inclusive climate action landscape. Aligning national, provincial, and city-level strategies will be crucial for ensuring a cohesive, equitable approach to climate action, where no community or region gets left behind.”
Elsewhere, the study suggests that there is a ‘one-direction’ influence from provincial climate strategies on city-level plans – for example, the Western Cape’s net zero strategy has informed policies in Cape Town.
This ‘top-down’ trend presents opportunities for greater alignment across national, provincial, and city governance, in order to ensure a consistent approach to climate action.
South Africa’s climate transition is also viewed as a test case for balancing economic development and environmental goals in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Just Energy Transition Partnership, which was announced in 2021 and has secured $8.5 billion in international funding, is highlighted as an example of global support for achieving a clean energy transition while promoting social equity.
‘Patchwork of approaches’
“Our analysis of the climate plans of the key engines of South Africa’s economy reveals a patchwork of different approaches to achieving a fair, people-focused transition,” added Camilla Hyslop, data lead, Net Zero Tracker (University of Oxford). “Some plans are progressive and responsive to the needs of citizens and workers, but lack the ambition to drive real business model change.
“Some plans set by multinational firms appear to be credible at the global-level, but lack detail on how they will work on the ground here in South Africa. And some companies entirely overlook the need for a transition – just or otherwise.” Read more here.
