EU imports of cocoa, wheat, maize and other key commodities face increasing risks due to the combined effects of climate change and biodiversity loss in supplier nations, a new study by Foresight Transitions has found.
Foresight Transitions’ study examined the climate vulnerability of six key food imports: maize, rice, wheat, cocoa, coffee, and soy, and found that more than half of the imports of each of these commodities came from ‘climate vulnerable’ countries.
It identified wheat, maize, and cocoa as the commodities most at risk from biodiversity challenges, adding that more than a third of the EU supply of rice, worth €1.5 billion each year, is under threat from increasing climate impacts.
‘Only getting worse’
“These aren’t just abstract threats – they are already playing out in ways that negatively affect businesses and jobs as well as the availability and price of food for consumers,” commented lead researcher Camilla Hyslop. “And they are only getting worse.
“In 2024 alone, floods in the UK and France decreased wheat production and high temperatures in Eastern Europe disrupted maize crops, making imports crucial for food security, while higher rainfall left cocoa rotting in West Africa, creating headwinds for chocolate producers. This is to say nothing of longer-term trends of declining production, such as extreme rainfall decreasing Chinese rice yields over the last two decades.”
Maize and cocoa
Currently, 90% of maize imports into the EU come from countries facing climate vulnerability, while 67% originates from areas with below-average biodiversity ratings.
In cocoa, meanwhile, the risks are even more concentrated, with the EU sourcing 97% of its cocoa from countries with low to medium climate resilience and 77% from those with limited biodiversity. European imports of cocoa are centered on a few countries in West Africa – Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria, the study notes.
“The European Union has forked out an increasing price for cocoa imports as a result of these environmental pressures, with the total value of imports increasing by 41% over the last year,” Hyslop added.
Foresight Transitions is urging EU policymakers to take stock of climate and biodiversity risks when planning food imports strategies, particularly when sourcing from climate vulnerable nations, with Dr Mark Workman, director of Foresight Transitions and co-author of the report, noting that the bloc’s “food security is increasingly threatened by the twin climate and biodiversity vulnerabilities of partner countries”. Read more here.
