Agricultural export restrictions can exacerbate the impact of climate change on global food security in a number of ways, a new report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) has found.
As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted, higher temperatures have a direct link to lower agricultural yields and production in affected countries, thereby impacting consumers in global markets through higher prices.
At the same time, food producing countries often impose agricultural export restrictions to ensure that enough food is available domestically, and at lower prices, a protectionist move that is aimed at benefitting local consumers in the short term.
Exacerbating the issue
While these restrictions may temporarily secure supplies domestically, they have a severe downside, the IISD noted – by limiting food availability in international markets, they exacerbate global food shortages and drive up prices, impacting low-income countries that rely heavily on imports.
‘The poorest countries, many of which rely on international trade to feed their population, are hit hardest,’ it said. ‘This cascading phenomenon highlights the fact that global trade has a key role to play in ensuring food security at the global level.’
In turn, this can create a dangerous cycle in which product scarcity and higher prices become normalised, putting global food security at risk.
For instance, during the 2007-2008 food price crisis, such restrictions on key crops like rice contributed significantly to the global price surge, with export bans accounting for nearly 30% of price inflation in the first half of 2008, IISD noted.
‘One study shows that the imposition of even a temporary export tax of 30% on wheat and maize exports in response to extreme weather events would increase prices by a further 17 percentage points in the context of raising global demand for these commodities,’ it said.
Climate variability alone accounts for roughly one-third of yield fluctuations globally, underscoring the need for international trade to adapt and help stabilise supplies.
The role of governments
Governments need to play a crucial role in preventing these adverse outcomes, the IISD noted, stating that major exporters should commit to minimising export restrictions, ensuring that they are only temporary, targeted, and transparent in line with World Trade Organization (WTO) guidelines.
The 2022 WTO Food Security Declaration emphasises the need for uninterrupted trade in agricultural products, urging exporters to consider the food security impacts on importing nations, especially low-income countries.
Importers, too, have a responsibility: large importing nations should avoid hoarding and panic buying, which can destabilise prices.
‘Going forward, international cooperation and trust-building actions between big exporters and big importers will be essential to avoiding exacerbating the initial pressures of climate change and increased extreme weather events on global food security,’ IISD noted.
Reliable agricultural information systems, such as the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) platform, can also support transparency and trust, it added. By providing timely data on production, stock levels, and market trends, these systems can counter the uncertainties that fuel reactive trade measures. Read more here.
