Accelerated investment in water capture and agricultural enhancements will be required to prevent instability and conflict in high-risk countries, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) has said.
In its latest Ecological Threat Report (ETR), the international think tank states that ‘without concerted international action, accelerating ecological degradation will amplify social friction and conflicts worldwide’, an effect that will be amplified by climate change.
According to the ETR, some 50 countries, which together are home to 1.3 billion people (and whose population could rise to around two billion by 2050), face either ‘high’ or ‘very high’ levels of ecological threat.
‘Ecological hotspots’
Some 27 of these are identified as ‘ecological hotspots’, where extreme ecological risks intersect with low societal resilience, leaving them vulnerable to instability, conflict and humanitarian crisis. 19 of these countries are located in sub-Saharan Africa, with the remainder in the Middle East and North Africa.
As the IEP notes, sub-Saharan Africa currently has one of the lowest irrigation rates in the world – just 1.8% of cultivated land is irrigated – presenting a ‘substantial opportunity’ to relieve ecological pressure through better water management.
“The world is at a critical juncture where ecological threats are increasingly intertwined with conflict risks, poverty and debt,” commented Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP. “Our research shows that targeted investments in water capture and agricultural practices could dramatically improve food security, increase local resilience, lessen conflict and alleviate forced migration.”
The ETR suggests that an annual investment of $15 billion in water capture and associated agricultural enhancements between now and 2050 could lift food production in sub-Saharan Africa by 50%.
This investment could also stabilise food supply and mitigate the risks of conflict and forced migration. As the report notes, on a comparative basis, regions like the UAE show low water risk despite scarcity due to strong governance, highlighting governance as a critical factor in managing water stress effectively.
Water management initiatives
In particular, small-scale water capture initiatives, such as sand dams and rock runoff dams, have demonstrated encouraging results in parts of Africa, the ETR notes. These projects, which require relatively low investments — including projects to the value of $50,000 — can potentially irrigate up to 9 hectares of land, generating returns as high as $180,000.
Sub-Saharan Africa, with approximately 34.2 million hectares of land that could benefit from irrigation, has substantial untapped agricultural potential. Utilising this resource would require less than 6% of the region’s renewable water, making it a feasible and sustainable approach to expanding irrigation and enhancing agricultural output.
“It’s crucial that governments and international organisations prioritise these interventions to build resilience and prevent future conflicts,” Killelea added. “Strengthening local governance and community-based conflict resolution mechanisms has proven more effective than external security interventions in mitigating tensions before they escalate into violence.” Read more here.
