The acceleration of the green energy sector has outpaced the expectations of the Paris Agreement, a new report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has said.
The ECIU’s report, Ten Years Post-Paris, said that the clean energy transition has advanced ‘far beyond what was predicted a decade ago’, with ‘cautious or even sceptical’ forecasts made in the Paris Agreement proven wrong by market momentum.
Solar expansion
As an example, solar installations in 2024 stood at 553 GW on a global level, outpacing 2015 International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by more than 1,500%. Total global solar capacity is now more than four times what was predicted in 2015, and continues to double every three years.
Elsewhere, a 2015 energy outlook from BP anticipated that the global non-fossil share of power generation would rise from 32% that year to 38% by the end of its forecast period in 2035. As of last year, non-fossil generation accounted for 41% of the global power supply.
Electric vehicle deployment is also moving faster than expectations, with EV adoption more than 40% higher than the IEA’s 2015 projections, and on track to be 66% higher by 2030, the ECIU said.
‘Unprecedented momentum’
“The Paris Agreement marked the first time the world signalled genuine intent to stop climate change,” commented John Lang, Net Zero Tracker lead at ECIU. “COP26 in Glasgow then turned that intent into net zero commitments – the only route to a stable climate. Together, these moments unleashed unprecedented momentum behind the shift to clean energy systems.
“There will always be doubters, claiming the transition can’t be done or that their country’s share of emissions is only 1%. But this shift is accelerating – irreversibly and irrefutably. The choice is simple: be part of it and prosper or stand aside and watch your influence fade.”
Other findings from the report include that global green energy investment is expected to total $2.2 trillion this year, double the spend on fossil fuels, with solar investment exceeding all other power generation combined.
In China, India, the EU, and the US, clean investment now outweighs fossil fuel spending at a ratio of $2.6 to every $1, double what it was in 2015.
From an employment perspective, some 36.2 million people around the world are now employed in the clean energy industry, outnumbering those employed in oil, gas, coal and other fossil-based industries (32.1 million).
National climate policies and framework laws have also expanded significantly since 2015, with some 83% of the global economy now covered by net-zero targets, despite the US’ recent pullback from net zero and climate policy.
Emissions reduction
“Is this enough to keep us safe? No it clearly isn’t,” added Gareth Redmond-King, international programme lead at ECIU. “Is it remarkable progress compared to where we were headed? Clearly it is. Paris has helped jam the brakes on emissions growth to just 0.32% a year, a fivefold drop compared to the decade before. And now, China’s emissions may well have already peaked.
“The next step in this journey, with attention turning to COP30 in Brazil, is the expectation that all countries signed up to the Paris Agreement need now to submit their new plans to further cut emissions out to 2035.” Read more here.
