Renewable energy could account for as much as 69% of Italy‘s total power generation mix by 2035, a new report by GlobalData has found.
According to the report, Italy Power Market Size, Trends, Regulations, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2024-2035, Italy is likely to have 107.7GW of renewable capacity by the end of the decade, with renewables accounting for around 59% of total annual power generation by 2030.
By 2035, this will increase to a cumulative installed capacity of 162.7GW from renewable sources.
Reduce reliance on gas
The acceleration to renewables was prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, GlobalData said, with Italy historically one of the largest importers of natural gas – sourcing 40% of its gas from Russia until 2021.
In 2022, however, Italy reduced its dependence on Russian imports to 19%, with the introduction of the National Plan for the Containment of Natural Gas. This was supplemented by natural gas imports from Azerbaijan, Algeria, and Libya.
The country simultaneously increased its reliance on renewables, revising its renewable energy generation objectives and setting a new target of achieving 65% by 2030.
Market conditions
However, the country has also faced some challenges associated with this shift, as Sudeshna Sarmah, power analyst at GlobalData, notes, “The severe drought in 2022 significantly impacted Italy’s power market, as hydropower generation decreased from 31.2TWh in 2021 to 13.7TWh in 2022.
“In the absence of nuclear power, the country increased its thermal power generation by 8.4%, rising from 163.4TWh in 2021 to 177.1TWh in 2022. Additionally, electricity imports reached a total of 47.4 TWh.”
According to Sarmah, the country’s decision to upgrade its renewable targets should be linked to “robust measures and a clear roadmap with definitive objectives to achieve them and overcome its dependency on natural gas and electricity imports.”
The country is also committed to eliminating coal-powered plants by 2025, and is set to revise its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).
“The current target outlined in the NECP is to reach 93.2GW of renewable power capacity by 2030, with solar PV systems expected to contribute 50GW and wind power slated to provide 19.3GW,” added Sarmah.
