The global sustainable aviation fuel market is set to be worth around $357.4 billion by 2035, experiencing exponential growth from 2030 onwards, according to Precedence Research.
This equates to a CAGR of 65.56% between 2026 and 2035.
The market is currently worth $2.31 billion, and is expected to nearly double, to $3.82 billion next year, with further growth set to be driven by rising demand from airlines, evolving regulatory frameworks, and ongoing investment in production facilities and supply chains.
Major markets
While Asia Pacific was the largest market for sustainable aviation fuel in 2024, this year that title has been taken by North America, which currently accounts for 47.11% of the market.
By feedstock type, vegetable oils currently lead the market, accounting for more than a third (36.11%) of overall capacity, however the waste oils and fats segment is anticipated to see the fastest growth over the forecast period.
In terms of processing technology, while hydro processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) is currently the largest segment, with a share of 41.23%, this is expected to be overtaken by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis segment over the coming decade.
The commercial aviation segment accounts for around 71.09% of all sustainable aviation fuel use at present, and this segment is expected to continue to dominate, with the private and business aviation segment set to account for around 10% of total use by the end of the forecast period.
Increased production
Noting that there are currently three major commercial producers of SAF, World Energy Neste and Montana Renewables LLC, Precedence Research added that production is expected to accelerate, particularly in the US.
‘Many airlines have signed agreements with existing and future SAF producers to use all their expected output,’ it said.
‘The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) collects renewable fuel data as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard, which provides an approximate consumption for novel biofuels such as SAF. EPA’s data show that approximately 5 million gallons of SAF were consumed in 2021, 15.84 million gallons in 2022, and 24.5 million gallons in 2023.’ Read more here.
