Greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.4% in the United States last year, reversing the declines seen over the previous two years, according to new estimates from Rhodium Group.
Emissions also outpaced US economic growth, the data showed, with real GDP expanding by 1.9%.
Despite the increase, however, emissions still remained 6% below pre-pandemic levels (2019), and 18% below the levels recorded in 2005.
Buildings and power
As Rhodium Group noted, the increase in emissions was largely driven by the buildings and power sectors – in terms of the latter, a cold winter led to increased demand for heating, and a 6.8% increase in direct emissions from buildings due to higher fossil fuel use.
Power sector emissions rose by 3.8%, due to a 13% increase in coal-powered electricity generation, however the fastest-growing power generation source last year was solar, which saw 34% growth; its highest growth rate since 2017.
“Elsewhere, changes in emissions were more subdued. Industrial sector emissions rose modestly due to higher industrial activity, and oil and gas emissions ticked up slightly with increased production,” Rhodium Group’s Michael Gaffney and Ben King commented. “Despite record travel activity, transportation emissions were essentially flat due to the growing adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles.”
Electricity demand growth tended to be concentrated in commercial buildings, particularly data centres, cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large load customers – largely situated in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Ohio Valley, the report noted.
The Trump effect
The report added that the emissions increase was ‘not meaningfully impacted’ by changes to energy policies enacted by the Trump administration, however it noted that these changes could have increasing influence in the years to come.
“Apart from some modest contributions to increased coal generation from Department of Energy orders to keep a few plants running, we aren’t yet seeing the direct effects of these policy changes in US emissions,” Gaffney and King commented. “That could change in the coming year or two, particularly if data centre electricity demand continues to surge and the grid responds with more output from existing fossil generators instead of new, clean resources.”
They added that moves by the Trump administration to stop collecting and reporting several datasets related to emissions and climate change means that we are “heading into murkier waters” when it comes to future transparency around emissions data. Read more here.
