Ireland is ‘significantly behind’ where it needs to be in terms of decarbonising residential heating, according to the Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI).
A new review by the ESRI notes that deep retrofits and heat pump installations reached just 11.5% and 3.5% of the way towards their end-of-decade goals, respectively, as the end of 2024, with projections suggesting that retrofits are unlikely to meet their targets, even with accelerated deployment.
The ESRI also raised questions about the accuracy of emissions cuts estimated through the Building Energy Rating (BER) system, as they are based on predicted rather than actual energy use.
Decarbonisation challenges
“This review synthesises the empirical evidence on residential heat decarbonisation progress and challenges in Ireland,” commented Dr Muireann Lynch, senior research officer at the ESRI. “It highlights substantial shortfalls in delivery and discrepancies in performance metrics to date. In this context, additional policy measures may warrant consideration.”
Barriers to uptake of retrofits and heat pumps include high capital costs, disruption, behavioural barriers, and split incentives in rentals, with 40% of homeowners reporting ‘no interest’ in changes to their home’s layout or structure.
Actual energy consumption has been found to vary little between BER ratings, indicating that efficiency improvements may not deliver the level of emissions reductions originally expected. As the ESRI suggested, this may be due to households increasing their energy use when the home becomes easier to heat, and variations in how heating technologies are used.
The ESRI concluded that additional policy measures may be necessary for Ireland to meet its decarbonisation objectives, including switching from oil and solid fuels to lower-carbon solutions, targeted grant supports, and automated demand flexibility technologies such as smart controls or thermal storage.
‘Shortfall in emissions savings’
“The study examines barriers to retrofit uptake and tracks progress in deployment,” added Dr Niall Farrell, associate research professor at the ESRI.
“Projected trends point to a likely shortfall in emissions savings relative to climate objectives. Drawing on multiple data sources and recent studies, the analysis highlights key evidence gaps that are crucial for tracking real-world outcomes against climate targets.” Read more here.
