Decarbonising the energy sector by 2060 would lead to greater energy security and reduced trade risks in most countries, a new study by Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability has suggested.
The study, Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios, which was published in Nature Climate Change, examined more than 1,000 decarbonisation scenarios, taking into account both the shift away from oil, gas, and coal as well as the securing of minerals such as lithium, nickel, and rare earths, which are essential for green energy systems.
With many of these minerals located in the Global South, this may require a ‘shuffling’ of the geopolitics of energy and global trade, the study suggests.
Security benefits
“Most people are focused on the new stuff that could be a problem, and not really considering the security benefits of moving away from fossil fuels,” commented Steve Davis, the study’s senior author and a professor of Earth system science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “For most countries in a net-zero emissions system in the future, trading off the reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels and increased dependence on these new materials is actually a win for energy security.”
While the US has rolled back some of its energy transition commitments under the Trump administration, decarbonisation has an important role to play here too, helping to strengthen trade partnerships, improve energy security, and reduce reliance on foreign oil.
“Generating electricity with solar and wind will require more imports than using abundant gas and coal resources in the US, but reduced dependence on foreign oil will be a big advantage as transportation is electrified,” Davis added.
Trade risk index
To reach their conclusions, the researchers developed a ‘trade risk index’, analysing the range of each country’s potential new vulnerabilities under decarbonisation relative to those associated with continued reliance on fossil fuels.
Their modelling, which was based on IPCC scenarios, suggested that if current trade networks remain unchanged, average energy trade risks would drop by 19% in a net-zero world.
If countries expanded their networks to trade with all resource owners, then trade risks on average would fall by half, they added.
Recycling could also play a key role, with the research finding that a quadrupling of current recycling rates for critical minerals could cut trade risks by more than 50% in the U.S.
“It is ultimately encouraging that most countries’ trade risks decrease in net-zero scenarios, and that the greatest improvements often occur in the countries which most drastically reduce their reliance on fossil fuels,” the researchers said. Read more here and here.
