The global market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.5% between now and the end of the decade, according to a new report by MarketsandMarkets.
The SAF market, which is valued at $2.06 billion as of this year, will be worth $25.65 billion by 2030, the research firm said, as market volume is expected to rise from 0.30 billion gallons to 3.68 billion gallons by 2030.
Increased air travel, aircraft production and fleet expansion are among the drivers of this growth, as is technological innovation in fuel processing, given the pressure placed on the aviation industry to meet net-zero emission targets.
The lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels such as SAF are around 80% lower than traditional jet fuel, underlining its role as ‘a strong near-term solution for airlines aiming to achieve carbon reduction targets’, the report noted.
Read more: Aviation firms should do more to ‘capture the opportunity’ of SAF, says BCG
Scalable technology
It added that established technologies like Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) and the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process, which converts waste and biomass into synthetic kerosene, are becoming more scalable and easier to retrofit into existing aviation fuel infrastructures, making them an increasingly viable option as the industry seeks to transition to a greener future.
‘This technological availability provides biofuels with an important start over other types of SAF, which remain at more advanced commercial development stages,’ MarketsandMarkets noted. ‘Additionally, biofuel production has a broad and increasingly sustainable supply chain, using waste and non-food biomass, which assists in solving both environmental and economic issues.’
Industry drivers
Major players shaping the SAF landscape include Neste (Finland), Shell (UK), TotalEnergies (France), OMV Aktiengesellschaft (Austria), and World Energy, LLC (UK), while from a geographical perspective, the Middle East is expected to achieve the highest growth in SAF development over the coming years.
‘Middle Eastern countries are spending a considerable amount on the construction of biofuel infrastructure to lessen the reliance on fossil fuels and increase energy security,’ the report noted. ‘Additionally, the region’s expanding aviation industry is creating demand for biofuels, especially sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), as the region has rich agricultural resources and biomass feedstocks, such as raw materials for different biofuel production pathways.’ Read more here.
