China is positioning itself to ‘lead global climate governance’, a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has suggested.
CREA examined the climate and energy policies included in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which was formally approved by the National People’s Congress in March of this year.
It noted that the Asian powerhouse is seeing to ‘strengthen its discursive power by constructing a new narrative for global climate governance’, as it embarks on a path to reduce emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035.
Core target
The central climate target outlined in the plan is an economy-wide 17% reduction in CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP between 2025 and 2030 – however, as CREA noted, this ‘intensity-based’ target could allow absolute emissions to increase if economic growth is sufficiently strong.
Allied to this, the plan is somewhat vague on coal consumption, setting out plans for the use of coal to peak by 2030, but not specifying a subsequent reduction rate.
Where China is seeking to double down, however, is on renewable energy, with the country targeting around 3.5TW of renewable capacity by 2030, including more than 2.8TW of wind and solar. The plan is also targeting 6,000TWh of renewable generation and a 50% non-fossil share of electricity generation by 2030.
To achieve this, China is upping investment in grid flexibility, storage, demand response and renewable energy utilisation. A national renewable-energy utilisation rate of around 90% has been targeted, below the previously cited ‘reasonable rate’ of 95%, potentially allowing greater curtailment where grid capacity and flexibility remain limited.
On transport decarbonisation, meanwhile, China is targeting new energy vehicles (NEVs) to account for 30% of its passenger vehicle fleet by 2030, up from 12% last year. In July of this year, sales of NEVs set a new record, exceeding 60% of monthly vehicle sales for the first time.
‘Responsible major power’
CREA says the plan represents China’s shift towards a more prominent international climate role, as the country seeks to position itself as a ‘responsible major power’ on climate change.
‘The plan suggests China will continue its current climate diplomacy strategy: uphold multilateral climate governance, shape global standards, and promote Chinese low-carbon technologies overseas, including by challenging trade policies it characterises as green protectionism,’ it said.
‘Realising these leadership ambitions will require significant and sustained emissions reductions at home, alongside greater climate engagement abroad beyond clean-tech exports.’ Read more here.
