Brazil’s presidential election is heading for a second-round run-off, with far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the ascendancy having picked up 47% of the first-round votes, compared to 45% for incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
But while the future political direction of the country is still to be determined, a new report by GlobalData has suggested that Brazil is ‘entering a new phase of power sector development’, with energy market reforms expected to accelerate investment in renewable energy, according to a new report by GlobalData.
According to the report, Brazil Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035, Brazil’s cumulative installed power capacity is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7% between 2025 and 2035.
During this timeframe, renewable capacity’s share is forecast to rise from 48.0% to nearly 62%, while renewable electricity generation to approach 50% of the total matrix, it added, driven by growth in solar investment, rising demand for grid flexibility, and a ‘substantial’ offshore wind development pipeline.
‘Resource base’
“Brazil has the resource base and investor interest to broaden its renewable power mix substantially,” commented Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, power analyst at GlobalData. “Solar PV will remain the principal near-term growth engine, while offshore wind represents a longer-term opportunity. The pace at which offshore projects progress will depend on clear rules for auctions, seabed leasing, environmental licensing, and grid access.”
While the ‘primary engine’ of capacity additions will be solar, onshore wind is also forecast to expand, particularly in the high-yield Northeast region, while natural gas capacity under construction is set to provide flexible generation during periods of high energy use.
“Solar PV is on track to surpass large hydropower as Brazil’s single largest power source in terms of installed capacity by 2035,” Saibasan added. “As variable generation expands rapidly across the Northeast and distributed solar penetrates distribution grids, expanding transmission corridors and reinforcing system reliability become urgent priorities.
“The 2025 Power Sector Reform Law supports this transition by gradually opening the free contracting market to all consumers and establishing a framework for grid-scale energy storage.”
Increased investment
Investment activity is also set to expand in tandem, with GlobalData forecasting that Brazil’s power sector will attract close to $93 billion in new capital investment between 2026 and 2030. Solar PV is expected to account for around three fifths (58%) of total expenditure.Increased investment
The country’s Low Carbon Hydrogen Framework is also expected to support investment, GlobalData added, with the country set to leverage low-cost renewable power for domestic industrial decarbonisation and clean fuel exports.
“Brazil enters the next decade with robust fundamentals: high-quality renewable resources, an expanding free power market, and significant investor appetite,” Saibasan concluded.
“Meeting long-term targets – such as cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035 – will require synchronised execution across grid expansion, licensing approvals, and regulatory certainty for storage and offshore wind to ensure the matrix remains clean, secure, and affordable.” Read more here.
