Just five out of 71 assessed countries still have an active commitment in place to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, following the expiry of the G7 commitment to phase out said subsidies by 2025, a new report by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) has found.
The State of the Sovereign Transition 2026 report examined the climate performance of 85 high-, middle- and low-income countries – which together account for around 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions – using the ASCOR framework Version 2.0.
As it found, information on actual climate spend by countries has ‘weakened’, with just three countries having reported climate-related expenditure for the first time since entering the ASCOR framework. In addition, five others no longer specify how much they allocate to climate-related spending.
Climate finance commitments
The expiry of the G7’s fossil fuel subsidies commitment last year has also led to a weakening of international climate finance commitments, according to the report, with the number of countries with commitments meeting their proportional share of the international climate finance goal falling from seven to four.
In addition, the report found that many countries’ emission trajectories remain ‘particularly far’ from alignment with the Paris Agreement. Of 75 countries with quantified 2030 targets and a cost-effective benchmark, just seven have emissions trends consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, while 16 are consistent with the report’s below-2°C benchmark.
‘Only 13 countries are on course to achieve the climate targets they have set, and eight of those are on track only because their 2030 targets allow absolute emissions to continue rising,’ the report noted.
Updated NDCs
Progress has been made, however, in setting longer-term targets, with 37 additional countries have included a 2035 emissions-reduction target in their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
According to the report, while this represents ‘progress in target-setting’, this isn’t also reflected in ambition. ‘The new targets are generally no better aligned with the 1.5°C and below 2°C benchmarks [compared to countries’ existing 2030 targets],’ the report noted.
‘Mixed signals’
“Both COP30 and COP31 have been framed as implementation COPs,” commented Setenay Hizliok, policy fellow and research project manager, TPI Centre. “However, we see that countries are not only failing to translate their commitments into action but have also dropped their previous pledges.
“It is particularly concerning that these withdrawals are coming from developed countries that have agreed to lead the way towards a low-carbon future and to support developing countries in their transition. These mixed signals in global climate landscape once again underscore the importance of monitoring and accountability.” Read more here.
