Coastal flooding, exacerbated by climate change, is set to place increased pressure on Europe’s transport infrastructure, with annual damage potentially reaching as high as €1.5 billion, a recent study published in Nature Climate Change has found.
The study, Coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure at different global warming levels, was presented at a seminar attended by SustainabilityOnline hosted by the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands last week.
The study assessed the risk to European transport infrastructure from coastal flooding under a range of global warming scenarios, and found that under baseline conditions, an average of 1,592 kilometres of transport infrastructure are affected by coastal flooding each year, with annual damage costs of around €722 million.
At 1.5°C of warming, expected annual damage across Europe could reach €1.108 billion, the study found, while if temperatures were to rise 4 °C above pre-industrial levels, annual damage to transport networks could be as high as €1.487 billion.
In all affected countries, roads are projected to be more affected than railways, and with both passenger and haulage transport in low-elevation coastal zones overwhelmingly road dependent, this would signal ‘potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change’, the report noted.
At the same time, railways are expected to account for a larger share of economic losses, due to higher repair and reconstruction costs.
Coastal infrastructure
‘With increasing urbanisation and maritime activity, transport infrastructure has become more concentrated in the European coastal areas,’ the researchers note. ‘The European Union is working towards completing the Trans-European Transport (TEN-T) core network by 2030 and a more extended, comprehensive transport network by 2050, prioritising the development and interconnection of major transport corridors.
‘Many of these planned investments are located in coastal regions to enhance cross-border mobility and economic integration. At the same time, these coastal areas are at increasing risk from coastal flooding due to global warming, highlighting the importance of aligning infrastructure planning with climate resilience.’
Country by country
At a national level, countries including Italy (with 436km of coastal networks), UK (355 km), France (195 km), Norway (100 km) and Denmark (94 km) are likely to face the greatest transport infrastructure exposure, with the UK poised to record the highest annual economic losses, well ahead of Italy, Norway, France and Denmark.
Elsewhere, countries such as Cyprus, Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are projected to experience some of the largest relative increases in damage as temperatures rise.
In terms of the implications on public spending – the level to which governments will need to allocate a greater share of transport budgets to repairing and maintaining transport infrastructure – Denmark, Ireland and the UK were identified as those likely to face the largest increases in expenditure.
‘These findings highlight the urgent need for increased investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, especially in countries where the relative economic impact is projected to be high,’ the researchers note. ‘Beyond economic implications, disruptions to transport infrastructure may also adversely affect social well-being and stability, particularly by limiting access to essential services, isolating vulnerable communities and reducing overall societal resilience to climate impacts.’
Authors on the study included researchers from IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, University of Twente, Deltares, Delft University of Technology, Department of Marine Sciences (University of Aegean), Department for Transport (UK), Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) and Joint Research Centre, Ispra (Italy). Read more here.
