Germany‘s government intends to increase its focus on the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in its future climate risk planning, according to reports.
As a spokesperson for the Federal Ministry for the Environment told the KlimaKlartext podcast, produced by Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany is set to produce a new climate risk analysis in 2027, which will “address the phenomenon of the AMOC more thoroughly and attempt to describe its potential impacts”.
The AMOC is responsible for transporting warm water northwards in the Atlantic Ocean, and plays a crucial role in regulating Europe’s climate. Scientists have repeatedly warned that climate change and increased freshwater inflows from melting Greenland ice could weaken the system, or even lead to its collapse.
Security policy
According to energy economist Claudia Kemfert, this issue should be treated as a matter of European security policy rather than solely an environmental concern.
“Europe should and must react here, because it is a European threat,” she told the podcast.
She urged Germany’s security authorities to assess the potential consequences of an AMOC collapse more systematically, through stress testing of critical systems and infrastructure, such as energy supplies, coastal protection, food security, critical infrastructure and supply chains.
“In Germany, the security authorities need to start grappling with what these stress tests mean and all the implications of this risk analysis,” she added.
Viewing the AMOC issue purely from a scientific perspective, she added, would be ineffective, adding that without concrete precautions, such reports risk becoming a “paper tiger.”
Climate risk assessment
In February 2025, Germany published its first National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment (NiKE), which involved participation from the Federal Intelligence Service (BND).
It identified the consequences of climate change as one of Germany’s five major external threats, in a list that also included Russia, China, cyber threats and international terrorism. Read more here.
