Climate change could lead to space being clogged with junk

Climate change is likely to reduce the number of satellites that can safely orbit the planet, along with the atmosphere‘s ability to burn up space junk, a new study by MIT has found.

The study, published in Nature Sustainability, suggests that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is having a ‘shrinking’ effect on the upper atmosphere, in turn slowing the natural process that removes old satellites and space debris by pulling them down to altitudes where they burn up.

MIT‘s aerospace team, led by Richard Linares and graduate student William Parker, undertook simulations that indicated the level to which carbon emissions affect the upper atmosphere and orbital dynamics, in order to estimate the ‘satellite carrying capacity’ of low Earth orbit.

They suggest that by 2100, the number of satellites that can be safely sustained in the most popular orbital regions could shrink by between 50% and 66% due to these atmospheric changes.

‘A fragile state’

“The upper atmosphere is in a fragile state as climate change disrupts the status quo,” Parker commented. “At the same time, there’s been a massive increase in the number of satellites launched, especially for delivering broadband internet from space. If we don’t manage this activity carefully and work to reduce our emissions, space could become too crowded, leading to more collisions and debris.”

Currently, over 10,000 satellites operate in low Earth orbit, providing critical services such as internet, navigation, weather monitoring, and financial transactions, with the number of satellites increasing significantly in recent years as a result of the rollout of SpaceX’s Starlink.

‘A sustainable path’

“More satellites have been launched in the last five years than in the preceding 60 years combined,” Parker added. “One of key things we’re trying to understand is whether the path we’re on today is sustainable.”

This research was supported, in part, by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Air Force, and the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council. Read more here.