The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) has called on the COP31 presidency to make electrification a key focus of this year’s conference, adding that current policies leave the world on course for global warming of 2.6°C by 2100.
A letter addressed to COP31 president Murat Kurum and president of negotiations Chris Bowen, which was signed by 30 members of the ETC, also urged parties to ensure that the decarbonisation of heavy industry is central to the conference outcome.
‘Still vital’
“Keeping global warming well below 2°C is still vital and still possible,” said Adair Turner, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, who added that the cost of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles is falling faster than previous forecasts suggested.
“But with unchanged policies, we’re still on track to about 2.6°C by 2100. To keep well below 2°C, we must turbocharge clean electrification, which in many applications will deliver both lower emissions and lower costs.cli
“But we must also meet more difficult challenges – reducing the utilisation of existing coal plants; decarbonising heavy industry, shipping and aviation; and radically reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel production and agriculture. In many cases, this will entail accepting some increased costs, but these costs are far less than the cost of unchecked climate change.”
Accelerating clean electrification
Signatories to the letter include ETC commissioners from Arup, Envision, Grantham Research Institute (LSE), Octopus Energy, Rothschild, Schneider Electric, Tata Steel, and Vattenfall, among others.
They called for an ‘acceleration’ of clean electrification by supporting the target of 35% electrification by 2035 and developing country-specific strategies to deliver it. In addition, the signatories urged faster decarbonisation of sectors such as steel, cement, aluminium, chemicals, aviation and shipping, which could be supported by carbon prices.
Carbon prices of approximately $100 per tonne could support decarbonisation in steel and cement, while aviation and shipping would require prices of $200–300 per tonne, the report noted.
“Clean electrification has momentum, like a boulder rolling downhill,” commented Jules Kortenhorst, co-chair of the Energy Transitions Commission. “We need to clear its path with faster grids and permitting for it to accelerate. Heavy industry, methane, deforestation and removals are like boulders stuck at the foot of the hill, needing carbon prices and finance to push them uphill.
“Move both and we take almost a degree off future warming with a huge impact: fewer wildfires, floods and failed harvests, and a lower risk of irreversible tipping points.” Read more here.
