The impact of extreme weather on migration patterns depends strongly on age and education, a new study by researchers at Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Harvard University, and the University of British Columbia has suggested.
According to the study, which was published in Nature Communications, extreme weather can push some demographic groups to migrate across borders, while others – typically those with the most exposure to negative climate impacts – are forced to remain in place.
It analysed more than 125,000 cases of international migration across 168 origin countries and 23 destinations, along with over 480,000 in-country moves in 71 nations. Factors such as temperature and soil moisture, key indicators of climate-related stress, were also observed.
Migration patterns
“Weather extremes can both incentivise people to move away and increase the number of people who don’t have the ability to migrate,” commented study author Hélène Benveniste, an assistant professor of environmental social sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “Our research shows that migration in response to weather, just like migration decisions in general, is highly dependent upon demographic characteristics.”
As the study found, following periods of extreme heat, children younger than 15 become less likely to migrate to a new country, while adults with limited education – particularly those aged over 45 – are likely to move away.
Cross-border migration pattens among those with education beyond secondary level, are less affected by extreme weather.
‘Double penalty’
As the authors note, many among those most likely to suffer from climate change impacts ‘will not be able to get out of harm’s way’, creating a ‘double penalty’, where the people with the least resources to adapt in place also lose access to migration as a viable adaptation strategy as the world warms.
“The effects of weather stress on people’s decision to relocate within their own country depend more on local climate zones, as well as demographics,” Benveniste added.
Projecting forward, the study suggests that in a scenario where the Earth’s average temperature rises beyond 2.1 degrees, migration rates by the year 2100 could increase by about a quarter among older, less educated adults while declining by up to a third among the youngest and least educated groups.
This assumes that other factors, such as conflict, politics, and job opportunities remain fixed, the authors noted.
“We hope that policymakers use these results as a basis to more squarely address the needs of different demographic groups,” Benveniste added. “We need to answer the needs not just of the people who move, but also those who are moving less.” Read more here.
