Buildings being designed today take into account a climate that ‘no longer exists’, according to researchers at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU).
As the researchers note, weather data currently used to simulate the energy performance of buildings in Norway, and most other parts of Europe, is based on measurements from the period 1991–2020, and thus fail to consider future climate developments.
‘Yesterday’s climate’
“We are simulating tomorrow’s buildings with yesterday’s climate,” commented Professor Thomas K. Thiis at NMBU. “A building designed today should still be able to function in 2050, 2070 and preferably longer. The gap between the climate we expect and the climate the building will actually experience can be over half a century.”
Professor Thiis, along with colleague Arnkell J. Petersen and researchers from the University of Coimbra in Portugal, developed ‘future weather files’ covering changing conditions for 5,000 locations across Europe, which they say could enable planners, architects and engineers to simulate how buildings could perform under different future climate conditions.
As they note, differing climate scenarios could influence decisions around solar shading, ventilation and cooling systems.
“It is a risk assessment that the developer must make a decision on,” Professor Thiis added.
Heating demand
However, temperature changes are not likely to be uniform across the course of a year – in Oslo, for example, average temperatures are projected to increase most during winter, while summer temperatures will change less. Since the majority of energy demand in Norwegian buildings goes towards heating, even relatively modest changes in average temperature can significantly affect energy calculations.
“It’s easy to think that a few degrees on average don’t mean much, but when the heating is concentrated in the season when energy consumption is highest, it has a significant impact on the calculations,” said Professor Thiis.
The researchers tested their future weather files on residential and office buildings in Kristiansand, Oslo, Trondheim and Tromsø. They found that heating demand fell noticeably across all four cities and under all emissions scenarios, with the largest reductions expected by 2080. Read more here and here.
