As alternative fuels continue to gain traction, and governments and businesses continue their shift towards green energy, global renewable refinery production capacity is forecast to triple in size by 2030, according to new analysis from GlobalData.
According to GlobalData’s report, Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition, global renewable refinery production capacity is forecast to increase from 11,716 million gallons per year (mmgy) in 2025 to 35,358.9 mmgy by 2030.
‘Especially important’
“The transportation sector remains especially important for oil and gas companies because it accounted for 46% of global petroleum product demand in 2025, rising to 55% when international bunkers are included,” commented Ravindra Puranik, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData
“As road vehicles, aircraft, and vessels cannot all transition away from liquid and gaseous fuels at the same pace, alternative fuels provide a practical route to lower emissions while maintaining fuel reliability, range, and operational flexibility.”
‘Immediate opportunity’
Alternative fuels, including biofuels, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and e-fuels, are increasingly in high demand, according to the report, with biofuels offering the most ‘immediate opportunity’, given that they can be blended into existing fuel systems.
In the near-term, GlobalData added, renewable diesel and SAF are set to grow in prominence, while low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and e-fuels are expected to play a role in sectors that are more difficult to electrify, such as aviation and marine transport, in the longer term.
The report also identifies opportunities for oil and gas companies to convert existing refineries to renewable production, adding that existing downstream facilities can be adapted to process waste oils, fats, greases, vegetable oils and other biogenic feedstocks.
“Alternative fuels require not only production assets but also resources for feedstock aggregation, certification, blending, logistics, offtake management, and customer relationships,” Puranik added.
“Companies with established trading arms and retail networks can build low-carbon fuel portfolios across SAF, renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and eventually e-fuels. Competitive advantage is shifting from simple production capacity toward control of the full commercial chain.” Read more here.
