More than 100 million buildings in the Global South are at risk of regular flooding due to sea level rise, a new study led by McGill University has found.
The study, Assessing the exposure of buildings to long-term sea level rise across the Global South, which was published in the npj Urban Sustainability journal, sought to determine the impact of long-term sea level rise on coastal infrastructure in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America.
‘Unstoppable consequence’
“Sea level rise is a slow, but unstoppable consequence of warming that is already impacting coastal populations and will continue for centuries,” commented Prof. Natalya Gomez, co-author of the study and Canada Research Chair in Ice Sheet–Sea Level Interactions at McGill University.
“People often talk about sea level rising by tens of centimetres, or maybe a metre, but in fact it could continue to rise for many meters if we don’t quickly stop burning fossil fuels.”
The study evaluated scenarios of between 0.5 and 20 metres of sea level rise, and found that even with a rise of just 0.5 metres – the most optimistic emissions pathway – around three million buildings could still be affected by flooding.
If global emissions continued at their current pace, leading to sea level rise of five metres or more over the next few hundred years, more than 100 billion buildings could be at risk, including both neighbourhoods and critical infrastructure such as ports and refineries.
“We were surprised at the large number of buildings at risk from relatively modest long-term sea level rise,” added Prof. Jeff Cardile, co-author and professor at McGill University. “Some coastal countries are much more exposed than others, due to details of the coastal topography and locations of buildings.”
Interactive map
The authors have published an interactive map on Google Earth Engine based on the findings of the study, which showed where exposure to sea level rise is greatest, enabling governments to inform climate adaptation strategies such as building protective infrastructure and adjusting land use.
“Every one of us will be affected by climate change and sea level rise, whether we live by the ocean or not,” noted Eric Galbraith, another professor involved in the study at McGill. “We all rely on goods, foods and fuels that pass through ports and coastal infrastructure exposed to sea level rise. Disruption of this essential infrastructure could play havoc with our globally interconnected economy and food system.” Read more here.
