New climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have only slightly lowered projected global temperature increases, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has said in a new report.
According to the Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, even if full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) takes place, temperatures are set to rise by between 2.3°C and 2.5°C by the end of the century, compared to 2.6°C to 2.8°C in a previous assessment.
At the same time, the forthcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will offset some of the gains, UNEP noted.
‘Path to a liveable future’
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a liveable future gets steeper by the day,” commented UN secretary-general António Guterres.
“But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
In the report, UNEP noted that global temperature increases will prove increasingly ‘difficult to reverse’, requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise overshoot, as well as to protect communities.
As of the end of September 2025, some 60 parties to the Paris Agreement, representing around 63% of global emissions, had submitted new national climate targets for 2035.
Full implementation of these NDCs would reduce emissions by around 15% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels, well below the 35% reduction needed for a 2°C pathway or the 55% reduction needed for a 1.5°C pathway.
‘Nowhere near fast enough’
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” added Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
“But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.” Read more here.
