If emissions continue to rise unchecked, global crop yields would drop by 24% by 2100, a new study by the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and the Climate Impact Lab has suggested.
The study, which modelled crop yields uncertain a variety of warming and adaptation scenarios, also noted that even if emissions are brought down to net zero, crop yields are likely to fall by 11% by the end of the century.
In the short-term, meanwhile, climate change is likely to drag down crop yields by 8% by 2050, regardless of the level to which emissions rise or fall in the coming decades.
‘That’s because carbon dioxide emissions stay in the atmosphere, trapping heat and causing damage for hundreds of years,’ the researchers noted.
The study, which was published in the journal Nature, examined data from 12,000 regions in 55 countries, focusing on six key staples: corn, rice, wheat, soybeans, barley, and cassava.
Food production
As the researchers noted, every additional degree Celsius of global warming will drag down the world’s ability to produce food by around 120 calories per day, or 4.4% of global food consumption.
“When global production falls, consumers are hurt because prices go up and it gets harder to access food and feed our families,” commented Solomon Hsiang, professor of environmental social sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and a senior author of the study. “If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that’s basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast.”
According to the researchers, adaptation measures such as shifting crop varieties or planting times would only be able to offset about one-third of climate-related losses.
Geographical impact
Areas that are likely to be hardest hit include the midwestern United States, with corn and soybean production likely to be ‘hammered’ under a high warming future. Cooler areas such as Canada and parts of Russia and China may see an increase in yields, however, at least in the short term.
“You do start to wonder if the Corn Belt is going to be the Corn Belt in the future,” commented lead study author Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
The research team said that it is now working with the UN to help governments allocate adaptation resources and identify communities most at risk of yield declines and where targeted support can be most effective.
“Farmers know how to maintain the soil, invest in infrastructure, repair the barn,” Hsiang added. “But if you’re letting the climate depreciate, the rest of it is a waste. The land you leave to your kids will be good for something, but not for farming.” Read more here.
