More than 2.5 million properties across the ten US states most exposed to potential wildfires face a ‘moderate or greater’ wildfire risk, new analysis from Cotality has found.
According to the data analytics firm’s 2026 Wildfire Risk Report, these properties – in California, Colorado, Texas, Oregon, Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, Montana, Washington and Utah – carry a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of nearly $1.4 trillion.
Most at-risk
The report, which examines wildfire risk assessment, property-level mitigation, insurance coverage and changes in the surrounding landscape, found that California carries the greatest share of exposure, with some 1.28 million properties representing $850 billion in RCV.
At the same time, approximately half (49.9%) of at-risk properties are located in other states, with Colorado and Texas together accounting for nearly 560,000 at-risk properties and $252 billion in RCV.
Los Angeles is the most exposed metropolitan area in the study, with close to 250,000 at-risk properties and $209 billion in RCV, while Austin, Texas, San Antonio, Denver, and Spokane, Washington also rank highly.
Protecting properties
“Hearing that a property has a higher risk score than previously thought should not be thought of as a bad thing,” commented Jamie Knippen, Cotality’s director of hazard insights.
“It shows that new data and analytic capabilities create an opportunity to protect properties more effectively in the evolving wildfire environment we’re facing. This represents a significant opportunity for the entire market: it empowers carriers to move away from broad-brush risk assessments and safely expand their underwriting footprint, and actively rewards homeowners who invest in resilience.”
According to Cotality, conflagration, where fire moves from wildland areas into communities, is often overlooked by traditional wildfire models. Adding conflagration potential to a traditional wildfire risk score can increase a property’s score by as many as 40 points, it noted.
The report also examines property-level mitigation, through a proprietary scoring system that weighs community protections, conditions on and around the property, and how fire-resistant a home is built. As it found, homes ranked in the top 10% for mitigation have expected losses around 78% below the statewide average. Homes in the bottom 10%, meanwhile, have expected losses more than 10 times the statewide average.
“New property-level data now empowers insurers to identify what additional steps homeowners can take to mitigate the risk on their properties and leverage that additional resilience in their decision making,” Knippen added.
“Expanding the assessment means going beyond terrain and vegetation to look at factors like structure density, building materials, wind patterns and ember exposure. Carriers that account for these factors upfront can make sure homes are properly insured for the catastrophe they actually face – not just the forest fire, but the fire next door.” Read more here and here.
