As El Niño continues to strengthen, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that the weather phenomenon is likely to persist at a ‘strong-to-very strong’ level through to the period from January to March 2027.
The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there was more than an 83% probability of El Niño continuing into the early part of next year, while the chance of a ‘historic event’ that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño periods recorded since 1950 also ‘remains high’.
‘Further strengthening’
As it noted, El Niño strengthened further during September, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4°C above average in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
The equatorial subsurface temperature index also remained ‘well above average’, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperatures remained more than 10°C above average at depth in the eastern Pacific.
‘Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific,’ the NOAA noted. ‘Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative.
‘Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño.’
Record breaking
The chance of El Niño surpassing previous records, which date back to 1950, stand at 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December, and 70% for November-January. A so-called ‘historic event’ in this instance is defined as one with a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of at least +2.5°C.
‘With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,’ NOAA added.
A strong El Niño has the potential to disrupt global atmospheric circulation, raising world temperatures and leading to erratic weather patterns, particularly in food-growing areas of the planet.
NOAA’s next monthly outlook is scheduled for 12 November. Read more here.
