TotalEnergies has published the latest edition of its Energy Outlook, which sets out three scenarios for the development of the global energy system through to 2060.
The eighth edition of the energy giant’s report examines how energy demand, investment, affordability and sustainability are likely to evolve under various scenarios, with projected global temperature increases ranging from 1.8°C to 2.8°C by 2100.
As it noted, investment in low-carbon energy, including electrification, almost doubled from $1.2 trillion in 2015 to $2.1 trillion in 2025. China is the ‘leading player’ when it comes to the energy transition, it noted, accounting for around 60% of solar panel additions, 70% of wind turbines, and 60% of electric car sales.
Elsewhere, TotalEnergies reported that electricity’s share of global final energy demand has increased by an average of 1.3% annually since 2000.
‘Trends’ scenario
TotalEnergies’ ‘Trends’ scenario reflects the ‘current trajectory’ of the energy transition, i.e. that current public policies, technological developments and consumer behaviour continue. Under this scenario, OECD countries fail to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, while China approaches it by 2060.
In addition, global demand for petroleum products increases before reaching a plateau in the 2030s, and then gradually declines, while gas continues to grow before stabilising in the 2040s. The scenario results in estimated warming of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100.
‘Momentum’ scenario
Under the ‘Momentum’ scenario, where projected warming is expected at 2.3°C to 2.4°C by 2100, a faster transition is achieved, with OECD countries approaching – but not achieving – carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by 2060.
This scenario envisages a greater shift to electrification, a near phase-out of coal in OECD countries and increased deployment of low-carbon hydrogen and sustainable fuels in aviation and shipping. However, at the same time, fossil fuels would still account for half of energy demand growth in India and much of the rest of the world.
‘Rupture’ scenario
Finally, the ‘Rupture’ scenario envisages a future in which global warming remains below 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement.
According to TotalEnergies, this current scenario, which would require ‘significantly strengthened multilateral cooperation’, a rapid reduction in coal use and a substantial expansion of low-carbon electricity generation, ‘currently appears out of reach given today’s geopolitical rivalries’. Under this scenario, an estimated temperature increase of between +1.8°C and +1.9°C by 2100 would be achieved.
“The global energy system continues to walk a fine line, between resilience and sovereignty challenges, once again highlighted by the crisis in the Middle East, and an ongoing transition,” commented Aurélien Hamelle, president for strategy and sustainability at TotalEnergies.
“Developments since the Strait of Hormuz crisis underline the importance for governments to promote domestic energies, through power generation, notably from renewables, the electrification of demand, and biofuels, while investing in securing the fossil energy system through the diversification of supply sources and investment in storage and transport infrastructure.
“Some of the trends observed in 2026 comfort the transition pathway initiated since the Paris Agreement, but do not support an acceleration sufficient to achieve the goal of limiting warming to below 2 degrees.” Read more here.
