The area of Europe affected by wildfires could almost triple by the end of the century, as climate change brings hotter, drier and windier conditions, according to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research.
According to the study, which was published in Global Change Biology, around 39% more land would be burnt per year by the end of the century (compared to the average recorded between 2000 and 2030) in a ‘low-emissions scenario’, where temperatures rise by around 1.8°C.
In a ‘high-emissions scenario’, where temperatures rise by around 3.6°C, the increase in land burned could be as much as 192%.
‘Driving up fire activity’
“Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” said Maik Billing, researcher at PIK and lead author of the study.
“Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8°C. But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires.”
Efforts to prevent, detect and fight wildfires are expected to improve over the coming years, with the researchers suggesting that continued improvements in fire management could reduce the area burned by up to 92% in a 1.8°C future and by 72% in a 3.6°C scenario.
However, they add that these estimates could be ‘optimistic’, given the efficacy of fire management in a much warmer climate.
Wildfire management
“We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more,” added Senckenberg scientist and study co-author Thomas Hickler. “If Europe increases investment in wildfire management: training fire crews, proper equipment, good coordination etc., our projections show that this can make a significant difference.
“But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down and we do not know yet where this point is. The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past.”
Recent data from the European Forest Fire Information System showed that around 550,000 hectares had burned across the EU by 12 August 2026, approximately 2.5 times the 20-year average at that time of the year. Read more here.
