Many carbon calculators used by airlines and travel companies ‘dramatically underestimate’ the true climate impact of air travel, a new study by the University of Surrey has suggested.
The study, which was published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment, saw the development of a new tool to account for the full life cycle of flying, and suggests that the true carbon footprint of a flight may be more than double current industry estimates.
The Air Travel Passenger Dynamic Emissions Calculator (ATP-DEC) takes into account CO2 as well as other ‘warming effects’, including nitrogen oxides, water vapour and contrails, which together can be more than twice that of CO2 emissions from a typical flight.
It also factors in upstream emissions from fuel production and in-slight services, as well as the environmental cost of airports and aircraft over their lifetimes.
‘Accurate and transparent information’
“By combining life-cycle analysis with real-world flight data, ATP-DEC will provide regulators, airlines and passengers with far more accurate and transparent information on carbon disclosure, helping align aviation industry with climate targets and the newest regulations in EU,” commented Eduard Goean, visiting professor at the University of Surrey and VP of Therme Group.
Benchmark tests against more than 30,000 flights showed that ATP-DEC’s estimates closely matched real-world post-flight data, compared to what researchers described as ‘substantial under-reporting’ by leading carbon calculators.
On some long-haul routes, they suggested, standard calculation methods understated per-passenger emissions by tens of thousands of tonnes in a single year – the closure of Russian airspace, for example, has meant that many flights between Europe and Asia have taken long detours, leading to higher fuel consumption and associated emissions.
The modular design of ATP-DEC also allows it to be adapted as new aircraft technologies, sustainable aviation fuels, and improved climate models emerge, the researchers noted.
‘A new benchmark’
“Airlines, booking platforms and policymakers could integrate ATP-DEC into their systems immediately,” commented Professor Xavier Font, co-author of the study and Professor of Sustainability Marketing. “Its modular design means it can evolve with new aircraft types, sustainable fuels and more advanced climate models. It also links directly to blockchain-verified carbon offsetting projects, making it easier to take credible action.
“Industry-wide, this model could set a new benchmark for climate transparency, replacing outdated tools that mislead the public and delay action on aviation’s environmental impact.”
The study was conducted by researchers from the Centre for Sustainability and Wellbeing in the Visitor Economy and the Centre for Environment and Sustainability, and was led by Professor Xavier Font, Professor Jhuma Sadhukhan, Dr Jonathan Chenoweth, and Finn McFall. Read more here.
