Global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has found, with a global mean near-surface temperature of between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the pre-industrial average expected between 2025 and 2029.
As the WMO noted, there is an ‘80% chance’ that at least one year in this period will surpass the hottest year on record – set in 2024 – and a 86% chance that at least one year will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The WMO also forecasts a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5°C, which compares to a 47% forecast last year, and a 32% forecast in 2023.
The probability that the five-year average temperature for 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C has now risen to 70%, up from 47% in last year’s projection and just 32% in the 2023 forecast.
‘No sign of respite’
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” commented WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
Other projections by the WMO include that Arctic warming over the next five extended winters is expected to be more than three and a half times the global average; further reductions in sea-ice concentration are likely in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk; and ‘wetter than average’ conditions are expected in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia.
Climate monitoring
“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” Barrett added.
The findings were produced by the UK’s Met Office as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
Under the Paris Agreement, which marks its 10th anniversary this year, global nations agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Read more here.
