The European car industry’s push for so-called ‘compliance relief’ measures in meeting CO2 emissions targets this year could slow the sale of electric vehicles, Transport & Environment (T&E) has said.
T&E was responding to the ACEA’s call for a ‘quick fix’ for the European car industry, to ‘address the risk of widespread CO2 non-compliance in 2025 for cars and vans’, which could lead to significant fines next year, of an estimated €16 billion.
‘The European Commission should reject any attempt to weaken the car CO2 regulation and firmly uphold the 2025 target,’ Transport & Environment said. ‘Carmakers are fully capable of meeting these targets, making the likelihood of fines minimal or non-existent. Rather than weakening the 2025 ambition, the EU should focus on measures to support EV demand, ensuring a smoother transition while maintaining the integrity of the climate goals.’
Analysing the proposed measures
T&E assessed the impact of two proposed measures: a 90% phase-in for 2025 and a five-year average compliance period. These measures could lead to up to 2.6 million fewer BEV sales between 2025 and 2027 and an increase in lifetime CO2 emissions from traditional vehicles, it noted.
The ‘phase-in’ measure would allow automakers to exclude 10% of the most polluting vehicles from the emissions average in 2025 and 5% in 2026.
This adjustment would lower the effective emissions reduction target from 15% to 7%, requiring automakers to sell only slightly more BEVs than in 2024. It suggests that instead of increasing BEV sales to 21%, automakers could limit them to 15%, while increasing hybrid vehicle sales by 19%. Over 2025-2027, this could result in the sale of 1.8 million fewer BEVs, it noted.
Five-year average
The five-year average compliance period would allow automakers to spread their emissions performance across 2025-2029 instead of meeting annual targets. This approach would enable manufacturers to keep BEV sales at 2024 levels until 2026, delaying their transition to electric vehicles, in turn leading to a potential loss of up to 2.6 million BEV sales in 2025-2027, and an 85 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions.
‘This would lead to slower EV adoption during 2025-2029: the 2-year delay in the BEV ramp-up could result in the loss of up to 2.6 million European BEV sales over the 2025-2027 period compared to the maximum BEV potential scenario (based on market forecast),’T&E said. ‘The additional [internal combustion engine cars] sold over 2025-2027 would emit 85 MtCO2 over their lifetime, equivalent to the annual combined emissions of Hungary and Lithuania.’
T&E added that instead of lowering regulatory ambition, the EU should focus on measures that support electric vehicle demand while ensuring automakers meet their emissions reduction commitments. Read more here.
