Renewable energy capacity needs to accelerate at an annual rate of 16.4% between now and 2030 in order for the targets set out at COP28 to be achieved, a new study by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has found.
According to IRENA, while renewables are the fastest-growing power source, the world is on track to fall short of the tripling renewables target set at COP28.
In 2023, renewables capacity saw a14% increase, IRENA noted, resulting in a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2017 to 2023. This growth, coupled with the steady decline in non-renewable capacity additions, positions renewable energy to surpass fossil fuels in global installed power capacity.
However, maintaining the 14% growth rate from last year will not suffice to meet the 11.2 Terawatts (TW) target by 2030, as outlined in IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario.
At this rate, renewables capacity will fall short by 1.5 TW, missing the target by 13.5%.
‘No time for complacency’
“Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent,” commented IRENA director general, Francesco La Camera. “Renewables must grow at higher speed and scale.
“Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel; if we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”
If the growth rate remains at the historic 10% annually, the world will reach only 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030, falling short of the target by nearly one-third.
To avoid missing these critical targets, global renewable energy capacity must grow more rapidly in the coming years, the agency reiterated.
Read more: Renewable energy accounts for more than two fifths of total EU electricity production
Asia leads the way
According to 2022 data, Asia continues to lead global renewable power generation, producing 3,749 Terawatt hours (TWh), followed by North America with 1,493 TWh. South America showed the most significant increase, with renewable power generation rising nearly 12% to 940 TWh, driven by hydropower recovery and an increased role of solar energy.
Calling for greater collaboration between governments, the private sector, multinationals and citizens, COP28 president Dr Sultan Al Jaber said, “Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivise the private sector to invest.
“Additionally, this moment provides a significant opportunity to add strong national energy targets in NDCs to support the global goal of keeping the 1.5°C target within reach.”
