While the US solar industry has installed close to 18 GW of new capacity in the first half of 2025, anti-clean energy policies by the Trump administration have led to a ‘significant’ reduction in deployment forecasts.
According to the US Solar Market Insight Q3 2025 report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, the US is at risk of losing 44 GW of solar deployment this year, a 18% decline.
By 2030, deployment could be 55 GW lower than previous forecasts, or a 21% decline, the report noted.
At the same time, despite government pushback, solar and solar storage still accounted for 82% of new power added to the US electricity grid in the first six months of this year.
‘Backbone of America’s energy future’
“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” commented SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardising the reliability of our electric grid.
“But no matter what policies this administration releases, the solar and storage industry will continue to grow, because the market is demanding what we’re delivering: reliable, affordable, American-made energy.”
More than three quarters (77%) of all new solar capacity installed this year has been developed in states that voted for president Trump – including eight of the top 10 states for new solar installations: Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.
Solar module manufacturing
Elsewhere, the US added 13 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity in the first half of 2025, with facilities opening or expanding in Texas, Indiana, and Minnesota. This brought total domestic module capacity to 55 GW. However, there was no new upstream manufacturing investment in Q2 2025, with federal policies threatening to stall manufacturing momentum, the SEIA noted.
“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” added Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.
“The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry incredibly challenging.” Read more here.
