Energy systems dominated by wind and solar are ‘competitive, reliable, and technically and economically feasible’, according to a new report by the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC).
The report, Power Systems Transformation: Delivering Competitive, Resilient Electricity in High-Renewable Systems, states that solar and wind-dominant energy systems can deliver electricity at costs equal to or lower than current fossil fuel-based systems.
Given that total global electricity demand could potentially triple by 2050, to 90,000 TWh by 2050 compared to 30,000 TWh today, investment in renewable sources will be essential, and different regions are well positioned to take advantage of wind and solar depending on their geography.
Adoption of solar-led systems is expected to accelerate in ‘sun belt’ countries such as India, Mexico, and much of Africa, while countries such as UK, Germany, and Canada are best positioned to take advantage of wind energy.
Zero-carbon power systems
“Multiple technologies, including nuclear and geothermal, may play a role in zero-carbon power systems,” commented Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission. “But wind and solar will be the dominant source of power in most countries, providing 70% or more of electricity at costs at or below today’s fossil-based systems.
“In particular, in the global sun belt, the collapsing cost of solar PV and batteries makes possible far cheaper and more rapid growth in green electricity supply than seemed feasible 10 years ago. But wind belt countries can also achieve cost-effective decarbonisation by leading in offshore wind, long-duration storage, and grid innovation.”
Other findings from the report suggest that wind- and solar-dominant systems can be just as stable and resilient as fossil-based systems when properly developed according to the ‘right mix’ of balancing and grid technologies.
Such systems can also be highly competitive, with electricity costs in sun belt countries potentially falling to $30–$40 per MWh by 2050.
The report also suggests that grid investments will need to more than double, reaching 150–200 million kilometres globally by 2050, with annual investment potentially peaking at $870 billion. However, innovations in grid technology could reduce these costs significantly.
Global energy transition
“Renewables are the core of the global energy transition, delivering clean, reliable, and affordable power,” added Bruce Douglas, CEO at Global Renewables Alliance. “Wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal, storage and modern grids are transforming electricity systems and opening new opportunities for growth, investment, and energy security.
“To keep this momentum, deployment must advance alongside grid expansion, market reform, and investment. Together, these build competitive, resilient systems that support jobs and economic progress. With governments leading and the private sector supporting, renewables will deliver a clean, secure, and just energy future.” Read more here.
