Global temperatures stood at 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels last year, with rapid global warming set to potentially push temperatures beyond the 1.5°C threshold within the next four years, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report.
As the report, which was published in the Earth System Science Data journal and produced by a team of more than 70 scientists from 56 international institutions, found, the rate at which heat is accumulating at a global level suggests high levels of future warming, with greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations and heat accumulation all reaching record or near-record levels.
‘Energy imbalance’
“A key indicator is the Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system, and provides a crucial measure of the pace of climate change,” commented Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and lead author of the report. “Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades.”
In 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions reached an all-time high of 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, driven by continued use of fossil fuels. Last year, meanwhile, was the third-warmest on record, with almost all warming observed over the past decade linked to human activities, according to the report.
“It comes down to a simple principle: we are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before, causing rising greenhouse gas levels, which are trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere and pushing the world out of balance,” added Dr Matt Palmer, science fellow at the UK Met Office.
Carbon budget
As the study suggests, that the remaining carbon budget compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C has shrunk to just 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the start of 2026. At current emission levels, that budget could be exhausted within approximately three years.
In addition, marine heatwaves are becoming more common – accounting for 65 days last year, more than triple that of 1991 – and sea ice levels are reaching a new record high as a result of melting land ice. Global sea levels are now 23 centimetres higher than they were in 1901, with the rate of increase accelerating rapidly
“The Earth’s energy imbalance is growing fast, driving changes in every component of the climate system, including ocean and continental warming, permafrost thawing, ice loss, and sea level rise,” added Dr. Karina Von Schuckmann, senior advisor, Ocean Science for Policy at Mercator Ocean International.
Climate monitoring
In the report, the researchers also stressed the importance of maintaining the global datasets and observation systems that support climate monitoring, adding that they will be ‘critical to our ability to detect these changes in the future’.
“This year’s edition of IGCC has involved over 40 global datasets, many of which are now threatened by funding decisions,” said Dr. Chris Smith, Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. “We need concerted international action and coordination to ensure the continuity of observations of the climate. Without this, future assessments will be much more difficult at a time when urgent climate action is needed.” Read more here.
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