A new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airbus and Accenture has suggested that corporate demand for sustainable aviation fuel could support between 1 million and 1.9 million tonnes of production by 2030.
The SAF Environmental Attribute Certificate (EAc) Market study noted that around 323,000 tonnes of SAF was produced in 2024, however this could rise significantly provided factors such as ‘unclear accounting rules, high prices, and purchasing complexity’ are addressed.
‘A unique opportunity’
“SAF is aviation’s most important decarbonisation lever, but airlines cannot shoulder the cost of scaling it up alone,” commented Marie Owens Thomsen, senior vice president sustainability and chief economist, IATA. “Corporate buyers have a unique opportunity to help build the SAF market, contribute to the cost of air transport’s energy transition, and benefit from recognised scope 3 emissions reductions in the process.
“The potential is substantial, but it will only be realised if companies can participate with confidence, knowing that their contributions will count and that the process is simple and credible. Getting these foundations right will help unlock investment, grow the market, and accelerate SAF production.”
While SAF is acknowledged as ‘significantly reducing’ aviation emissions compared with conventional jet fuel, global production is forecast to reach only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026; equivalent to 0.8% of total jet fuel consumption.
In addition, SAF is currently two to three times more expensive to produce than conventional fuel, a factor that will need to be addressed to bolster corporate take-up.
A potential solution lies in SAF Environmental Attribute Certificates (EAc), which allow companies to contribute towards SAF and claim associated emissions reductions through a ‘book-and-claim system’, without requiring the physical fuel to be delivered to the aircraft they use. Such a system could allow the cost of SAF to be shared more widely across the aviation value chain.
SAF EAc currently cost between $150 and $500 per tonne of CO2e abated, with the companies surveyed in the report saying they were willing to pay around $300.
Buying process
“SAF will do most of the heavy lifting on aviation decarbonisation, but airlines and a select group of corporates cannot carry its cost all the way to 2050,” added Jesko Neuenburg, global aviation and travel sustainability lead, Accenture.
“Only around 15% of surveyed corporates are purchasing today, but the majority are waiting for the price to come down, for the carbon accounting to settle, and for the buying process to get simpler. Airlines that establish SAF cost-recovery capabilities now will be best positioned when growth in the SAF EAc market accelerates. The opportunity today is to focus on the sectors where demand is already emerging, making SAF attributes simple and transparent to buy, and invest in the systems, partnerships, and customer relationships that can scale as the market matures.”
The study identifies three priorities for unlocking more corporate participation.
- Companies will require clear and consistent accounting rules so they can be confident that purchased emissions reductions will be recognised.
- Tracking systems need to be transparent and interoperable to prevent double counting and protect the environmental integrity of certificates.
- Purchasing needs to become simpler, with greater price transparency, smaller minimum purchase volumes and shorter contracts. Read more here.
