With many of the world’s largest emitters yet to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outlining their climate action plans for the period to 2035, the World Resources Institute has said that these forthcoming NDCs need to be ambitious in scale to achieve meaningful progress.
In an article entitled Are Countries’ New Climate Plans Ambitious Enough? What We Know So Far, the WRI noted that the NDCs submitted to date, including from countries such as the US, Japan and Brazil, have made a ‘noticeable but modest dent in the 2035 emissions gap’.
The emissions gap refers to the difference between where emissions levels need to be by 2035 to align with 1.5°C targets, and where they are expected to be under individual countries’ new climate plans.
‘While this marks progress, it’s far from what’s needed to keep global warming within safe limits,’ the WRI said. ‘Getting on track to 1.5 or even 2 degrees C would require much steeper cuts than what’s currently on the table.’
‘Scale and ambition’
As it added, with the remaining G20 countries accounting for around two-thirds of global emissions, forthcoming NDCs, particularly from markets such as China and India, are set to be watched closely.
‘The scale and ambition of these commitments could meaningfully narrow the emissions gap — or, if they fall short, leave the world locked into a trajectory that puts global temperature targets out of reach,’ the WRI said.
Current global warming projections, based on the latest round of NDCs suggest a reduction in potential warming from earlier worst-case scenarios, but they still fall short of what is needed, it noted.
If fully implemented, these plans could limit warming to between 2.6°C and 2.8°C, however without stronger action, the world is on track for a 3.1°C rise.
‘Ultimately, putting forward strong plans — and fulfilling them — are essential levers: not only for limiting warming, but for safeguarding the health, prosperity and security of current and future generations,’ the WRI said. Read more here.
