Ireland‘s stated target of decarbonising the electricity sector and the wider energy sector by 2050 is based more on aspiration than on practical, deliverable realities, the Irish Academy of Engineering (IAE) has said.
The IAE has published a report, The Energy Transition – What is the 2050 Action Plan and Timeline?, which highlights the absence of a detailed plan to implement more than 350 large-scale infrastructure projects required to meet the country’s projected energy demands.
It noted that if demand-side targets to electrify heating and transport by 2050 are to be met, Ireland’s electricity requirement will need to increase from 34 TWh in 2024 to around 80 TWh, while peak power demand will grow from 6,000 MW to potentially 12,000 MW.
Energy infrastructure projects
The 352 projects identified by the IAE include more than 200 large onshore wind and solar projects – which are likely to be subject to local opposition and planning delays – as well as the installation of ‘many hundreds of kilometres of overhead transmission lines’, and a large increase in the fleet of gas turbines, to ensure reliability of supply when renewables are insufficient.
It also highlighted the ongoing security risk posed by Ireland’s dependence on natural gas – a concern that has been raised on several occasions in National Risk Assessments, dating back to 2014.
‘The fundamental challenge arising from the intermittency of renewables has not been adequately addressed to date, and energy policy needs to recognise that there is no currently available or prospective alternative to natural gas as the backstop source of energy for electricity generation,’ it noted.
Feasibility study
The report also notes that while the government has set a target of a zero-emissions electricity system by 2050 – while also acknowledging the financial penalties that would arise if this target is not met – it has failed to first understand and demonstrate how it is feasible.
‘Moreover, this has been done without estimating how much the endeavour will cost and what impact it will have on the already high prices consumers pay for their electricity,’ the IAE said.
‘Ireland needs an energy policy which goes beyond wishful thinking to recognise engineering, financial and project delivery realities, even if the consequences of this could mean having to revise the legal requirement and the policy objective to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.’ Read more here.
