An AI-driven study has suggested that even with rapid decarbonisation, global warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius is inevitable, with the hottest years of this century set to ‘shatter’ recent temperature records.
The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, was co-authored by Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh and Colorado State University’s Elizabeth Barnes.
It suggests that despite efforts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, global temperatures are on track to breach 2°C, with a nine-in-ten chance that annual temperatures will exceed 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the 2050s, and a two-in-three chance global warming will surpass 2.1°C.
‘Accelerating impacts’
“We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes, commented Diffenbaugh. “This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently.”
In an alternative situation, where emissions decline more slowly, achieving net zero by 2100, there is a nine-in-ten chance that the hottest year will be 3 degrees Celsius hotter globally than the pre-industrial baseline.
In that scenario, many regions, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, could experience temperature anomalies three times greater than those seen in 2023.
AI predictions
In conducting the study, the authors trained an AI system to predict how temperatures could climb, depending on the pace of decarbonisation, utilising a vast array of climate model simulations.
“AI is emerging as an incredibly powerful tool for reducing uncertainty in future projections,” said Barnes, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State. “It learns from the many climate model simulations that already exist, but its predictions are then further refined by real-world observations.”
As Diffenbaugh noted, even with a hugely successful effort and investment in decarbonisation, “there is a real risk that, without commensurate investments in adaptation, people and ecosystems will be exposed to climate conditions that are much more extreme than what they are currently prepared for”. Read more here and here.
Read more: 2024 set to be the ‘first calendar year above 1.5°C’
